Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon May 13, 12:11PM CDT

Corn futures have clawed their way back to UNCH or fractionally higher in the front months on Monday. They were 7-8 cents lower overnight. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated that 1.001 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on May 9. That was up 2.45% from the week prior but still 36.59% below the same week in 2018. The Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders report showed managed money specs in corn futures and options trimming their net short position as of May 7 by 24,372 contracts to 282,327 contracts. Trade ideas for US corn planting progress are in the 35-37% range vs. 69% average for this date.

May 19 Corn is at $3.42 1/2, unch,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.51 3/4, unch ,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.61 1/4, up 1/4 cent

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.72 1/2, up 1/2 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 10 to 12 cents lower in most contracts at midday. Front month May was 4 1/4 cents away from the Dec 2008 low this morning on the continuous contract. Nearby soy meal is down 50 cents, with soybean oil 35 points lower. May futures expire on Tuesday. Trade tensions are rising, as China plans to raise tariffs on $60 billion of US goods to counter the US hike from last week. USDA showed 513,375 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week of May 9, with 272,061 MT headed to China. Shipments were down 14.87% from last year and 26.55% below the same week last year. Money managers in soybean futures and option held a record reported net short position of 160,553 contracts on Tuesday, a move of 12,027 contracts from last week. Traders are looking for US soybean planting progress to be around 14-15% complete in tonight’s NASS report, vs. the 26% average pace.

May 19 Soybeans are at $7.86 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $7.97 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.04 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.10 1/2, down 11 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $283.60, down $0.50

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $26.15, down $0.35

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 6 to 9 cents higher in the winter wheat contracts on Monday, with MPLS down 1 1/4 to 1 cent higher. The weekly Export Inspections report showed a robust 842,418 MT of wheat shipped in the week of May 9. That was 56.73% larger wk/wk and 80.40% above the same week last year. Trade ideas for tonight’s report have spring wheat planting 34-37% complete vs. the five-year average of 70% done. Spec traders in the KC wheat futures and options market extended their record large net short to 58,866 contracts as of Tuesday. Analysts expect this afternoon’s Crop Progress report to show spring wheat at 34-36% planted compared to the 70% average.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.33, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $3.94 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.15 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are down $1.15 to $2.25 at midday. Feeder cattle futures are $1.05 to $2.975 lower on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 32 to $135.52 on May 9. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up 69 cents at $221.80 with Select boxes 96 cents higher @ $208.42. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 664,000 head. That was down 6,000 head from the previous week and 9,000 above the same week last year. CFTC data showed managed money dropping their net long position in live cattle futures and options by 24,881 contracts in a week to 104,701 contracts. The two-week drop of 49,849 contracts is the largest on record.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $110.275, down $2.175,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $107.275, down $1.625,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $107.300, down $1.725,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $135.275, down $2.350

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.950, down $2.875

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.100, down $2.675

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are down 17.5 cents to $1.825 at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 4 cents from the previous day @ $82.80 on May 9. CME’s initial weekly Fresh Bacon index is at $155.39 for the week of May 10, down $9.37 from the previous week. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $2.09 at $88.25 on Monday morning. The national average base hog was $80.01 on Monday, up 8 cents from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.341 million head last week. That was 41,000 head below the previous week but 35,000 above the same week last year.

May 19 Hogs are at $83.575, down $0.175,

Jun 19 Hogs are at $87.850, down $1.825

Jul 19 Hogs are at $89.175, down $1.575

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading limit lower in the 2019 contracts on Monday. Trade tensions are rising, as China is planning on raising tariffs on $60 billion of US goods to counter the US hike from last week. The Cotlook A index for May 10 was down 120 points from the previous day to 80.70 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week. Spec in cotton futures and options flipped their net position back to short by 15,088 contracts in the week of May 7 to -4,841 contracts.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 65.45, down 300 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 66.65, down 300 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 66.4, down 300 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 67.460, down 291 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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