Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri May 17, 12:30PM CDT

Corn futures are showing gains of 2 to 5 1/4 cents in the front months on Friday, as Dec nears $4. The buying is tied to slow planting progress and the potential impacts on either final acreage or yield. US exports as of May 9 are 63% of the USDA projection for 18/19, matching the average pace. The total commitments, however, are just 80% of that projection vs the 92% average, as unshipped sales are lagging. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 34% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, about the normal pace. They also left their production estimate at 48 MMT, vs. USDA at 49 MMT. A total of 138,000 MT of corn was bought in separate South Korean tenders on Friday, with US and South America listed as optional origins.

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.84 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.91 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.99 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.09 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 10 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. Concerns of corn acres switching to beans, as USDA mulls over future trade aid are pressuring the market lower. July soy meal is down $5.30/ton, with soybean oil 25 points lower. USDA data from Thursday shows total export commitments at 94% of the 18/19 projected total, down from the 98% average. Export shipments are 69% of that projection, with the average at 87% and last year (which had a robust fourth quarter) at 79%. BAGE raised their Argentine soy crop estimate by 1 to 56 MMT, They show 76.7% of the crop harvested, 6.1% above the average.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.29 3/4, down 10 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.36 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.42 1/2, down 10 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.54 3/4, down 10 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $296.60, down $5.30

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.47, down $0.25

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are posting 2 to 8 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Support is coming from strength in corn and weather forecasts that shows delayed planting for HRS areas. Moisture issues in SRW and part of HRW country are also beginning to worry traders about protein readings and fungal problems like scab, vomitoxin and fusarium. Total unshipped US wheat sales now account for 3.517 MMT, with just 3 reporting weeks left in the MY, as total commitments are up 8.8% from last year. Those export commitments are 103% of the updated USDA projection, with 105% the average.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.71 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.24 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.33 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are up 27.5 cents to $1.05 at midday. A USDA announcement shows that Japan has agreed to lift the 30-month age restriction on beef imports from the US that was implemented originally as a 20-month following the BSE outbreak in 2003. Feeder cattle futures are 25 cents to $2.0125 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.75 to $133.06 on May 15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were up 15 cents at $219.71 with Select boxes 17 cents higher @ $208.05. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 484,000 head through Thursday. That was up 3,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 above the same week last year. Cash sales have been reported at ~$117 this week, with a few down to $115 reported by USDA.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $110.750, up $0.275,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $108.625, up $0.675,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $108.575, up $0.675,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $134.475, up $0.250

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $144.775, up $1.450

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.950, up $1.725

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are steady to 50 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 53 cents from the previous day @ $84.21 on May 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 14 cents at $86.27 on Friday morning. The national average base hog was 63 cents lower on Friday, at an average weighted price of $80.45. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 1.845 million head for the WTD through Thursday. That was 48,000 head below the previous week but 25,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $91.850, down $0.375,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $92.150, down $0.250

Aug 19 Hogs are at $93.250, down $0.050

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing losses of 51 to 61 points in most actively traded nearby contracts, with Oct down 201 points. A stronger dollar is providing a little pressure. USDA’s Export Sales data on Thursday show upland cotton shipments 67% of the projected total, with the normal pace at 75%. Total commitments are now 104% of that total, with the average at 100% for this week. The Cotlook A index for May 16 was down 50 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 66.19, down 61 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 65.69, down 201 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 66.58, down 51 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 67.560, down 59 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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